Asian Disease

by Niels Vink
on januari 17, 2024

Imagine that Europe is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. The exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

If program A is adopted, 400 people will die. If program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die. Which program would you prefer?


Please return to Mentimeter and fill in your preferred program.

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