Why am I so easily influenced? And what do random numbers have to do with it? I will explain why this is the case and also reveal how to use this knowledge to your advantage. You can apply this new insight in everyday live. Even when shopping for your new sports outfit.
Golden Behaviors
– Nudges for a Healthy Lifestyle –
Reading time: 5 Minutes
Last week the Dutch government announced that the gyms can reopen on the 1st of July after the lockdown due to Covid-19. Although with some conditions attached. The gyms have to conduct a healthcheck before members visit, provide sufficient air quality and uphold strict hygiene measures. The gym owners and most of their members were ecstatic and very happy with the news of the reopening. And as a fitness enthusiast and gym member, I was too. It took me almost the rest of the press conference by the Prime Minister before I realised that I shouldn’t be so happy with the news at all. I myself had fallen for a bias that I teach third year Bachelor students at The Hague University to be aware of.
Let’s do a small test together
A bias is a deviation from the true result. It can happen for a number of reasons. Let’s do a small test together to get some more insight into the bias we are talking about. Please answer the two following questions about African nations in the UN to the best of your knowledge, before you move on.
Question 1:
Was the percentage of African nations in the UN in 1974 higher or lower than 65?
Question 2:
What was the percentage of African nations in the UN in 1974?
So you have two answers now. A higher or lower at question 1 and a percentage at question 2.
The original research
The questions on African nations in the UN come from a famous research by psychologist Daniel Kahneman. The research was conducted in two separate groups. It asked both groups the percentage of African nations in the UN in 1974. Not a question a lot of people would know the exact answer to. Just like you, they had to make an educated guess. Before being asked the question about the percentage of African nations in the UN in 1974, both groups received a different question. The first group had to answer the question if the percentage of African nations in the UN in 1974 was higher or lower than 10. The second group got the question with a different number. Higher or lower than 65. The same number you received. Although there was consencus between the participants in the two groups that the actual percentage of African nations in the UN in 1974 must be higher than 10 and lower than 65, the number had a significant impact on the second question.
The first group with the number 10 thought the percentage of African nation in the UN in 1974 was 25%. The second group with the number 65 said 45%. So both groups were significantly influenced by the number being either 10 or 65 in the first question. The numbers are so-called anchors that influence the answer to the second question. Because you don’t actually know a lot about the subject, you just go with the information you receive in question 1 and adjust your answer to it in question 2. Even if the number in question 1 is completely random and has no value. Being given an anchor of 65, you probably scored closer to 45% than to 25%. Or maybe you’re just an expert on the subject and knew that the actual percentage was African nations in the UN in 1974 was 25%.
Anchoring in lockdown
This bias of anchoring is what made me very happy with the news of the gyms reopening. Earlier last month the Dutch government announced that the gyms couldn’t be opened until the 1st of September. A devastating long period for both economic and health reasons. A lot of people were furious. Gym owners filed lawsuits against the government and public outrage was to be found all over social media. With the anchor set at another three months of closure, a mere one month closure suddenly doesn’t sound that bad. Although it is still another month of damage to society and totals a three and a half months of closure for gyms. Not something I would have felt happy about back in March or April.
Watch out for the anchor when shopping
So next time you go shopping for a great sports outfit, try not to be tempted by the pricing anchor.
The flashy sportshirt with a retail price of €34,99 now ‘on sale‘ for just €16,69, isn’t a bargain and you are not ‘saving‘ 52%. And you probably know it too. But still you have a hard time ignoring the anchor of €34,99. You not only buy the sportshirt, but feel good about the purchase too. Just like I am happy about the gyms finally reopening. Even though we both know better.
Why You Shouldn't Be Happy With the Reopening of the Gyms. But You Are. Delen op XSander Palm (1980) is author of Golden Behaviors and behavioral economist. He uses insights from the behavioral sciences to explain why people often act against their own interests. As a behavioral expert, he explores how you can nudge your behavior for a healthy lifestyle. He has a Master of Science in Marketing (VU University Amsterdam).
When you have been inspired to start and maintain your Golden Behaviors, reach out to me.
Source of top image: Photo by Victor Freitas via Pexels
One response
Thanks for sharing, Sander! I had not looked at it that way. Squash is also starting up on July 1st. I’m still happy about it too even now I realize I probably should not be happy so much. These are times that I am satisfied with my heuristics and biases that make me happy!